{"type":"doc","content":[{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"id":"5d2d5912-e44e-43bf-83ec-293de6ee68fd","textAlign":"inherit","indent":0,"color":null,"background":null,"isHoverDragHandle":false},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"八月一号，DeepSeek V4Flash在OpenCode平台的单日token调用量达到八万亿，其他所有大模型几乎无人问津。这意味着，大模型市场上斩杀线横立，其他大模型今后成了僵尸大模型。就像一战时，凡尔登战场上出现了马克沁机枪。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"id":"f9ab5c42-4671-47e8-8a88-0a5356baf72a","textAlign":"inherit","indent":0,"color":null,"background":null,"isHoverDragHandle":false},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"由此，workbuddy推演2026年未来半年美国AI产业利润变化："}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"id":"4c1a3116-dc4f-48b2-b6e0-40982e33cab5","src":"https://developer.qcloudimg.com/http-save/audit-12626904/661ecfd130ab6a83bf865888b6d72163.png","extension":"png","align":"center","alt":"","showAlt":false,"href":"","boxShadow":"","width":1060,"aspectRatio":"1.630769","status":"success","showText":true,"isPercentage":false,"percentage":0,"isHoverDragHandle":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"id":"d6f48e56-d559-444c-9745-f37da5ddc1d1","textAlign":"inherit","indent":0,"color":null,"background":null,"isHoverDragHandle":false},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"一、三季报（8/1仅冲击后2个月）：数字未必崩，但指引下修、减值计提、增速放缓是先兆——英伟达下季指引下修、云巨头OpenAI减值开始计提、大模型厂亏损扩大。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"id":"8616573f-3576-46df-87ec-2b77cfa4227a","textAlign":"inherit","indent":0,"color":null,"background":null,"isHoverDragHandle":false},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"二、2026年报（充分反映）：大模型厂亏扩（OpenAI至$200-300亿）、芯片毛利回落增速放缓、云巨头AI三盘失血 FCF持续负 纸面股权收益逆转成减值冲净利，净利增速大回落。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"id":"aeb124c1-e51a-4c49-9138-66a558095794","textAlign":"inherit","indent":0,"color":null,"background":null,"isHoverDragHandle":false},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"三、最致命的真相：8/1前财报的"利润暴涨"是纸面股权收益（谷歌99B/亚马逊53B）撑的，主业FCF已转负；8/1后商品化压差价、AI资产估值下修，粉饰柱塌、收益翻成减值——利润表的"水分"在年报暴露。8/1后商品化让云更难赚AI差价，且AI资产估值下修会把"收益"翻成"减值"。这正好印证你前一轮的判断——云巨头靠非AI基本盘输血，如今连粉饰柱都要塌。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"id":"374beb3d-bdf5-4ab5-a40d-3b0918679b9e","textAlign":"inherit","indent":0,"color":null,"background":null,"isHoverDragHandle":false},"content":[{"type":"text","text":"由此，WorkBuddy推演了未来半年美国AI产业大模型厂商、芯片厂商、云巨头的股份变化曲线（立此存照）。"}]},{"type":"image","attrs":{"id":"0e51e400-7694-4c85-8232-5e258a9e24d6","src":"https://developer.qcloudimg.com/http-save/audit-12626904/b866f95fc2fdae45dc1a3a9b69b86239.png","extension":"png","align":"center","alt":"","showAlt":false,"href":"","boxShadow":"","width":1060,"aspectRatio":"1.737705","status":"success","showText":true,"isPercentage":false,"percentage":0,"isHoverDragHandle":false}},{"type":"paragraph","attrs":{"id":"be6c65c9-6e3d-4a07-8a22-80f233e6276c","textAlign":"inherit","indent":0,"color":null,"background":null,"isHoverDragHandle":false}}]}","createTime":1785921161,"ext":{"closeTextLink":0,"comment_ban":0,"description":"","focusRead":0},"favNum":0,"html":"","isOriginal":0,"likeNum":0,